Just 24 hours after briefly declaring the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic, Iran has reversed course again, fully reimposing restrictions and firing on vessels attempting to transit the waterway.
On April 18th, Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired warning shots and projectiles at least at two commercial ships — including a tanker and a container vessel — according to reports from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and shipping monitors. Several other vessels were reportedly turned back after being warned that the strait was closed.
Tehran says the restrictions will remain in place until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports, which Iran describes as a violation of the fragile ceasefire agreement. The United States has rejected the claim, accusing Iran of bad faith and undermining the truce.The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, is once again effectively paralysed. This rapid reversal has dashed hopes of even a short-term return to normal shipping and has sent fresh jitters through global energy markets.
High stakes for Asia and beyond
The developments are particularly concerning for major Asian economies. China, India, Japan, and South Korea — which together account for the majority of oil and LNG moving through the strait — are now facing renewed uncertainty over energy supplies and prices. Japan, which sources around 95% of its oil from the Middle East, and India, which relies on the Gulf for more than half its crude imports, are among the most exposed.
Global oil prices showed renewed volatility on April 19th, while shipping companies have put transits on hold and insurance costs have climbed sharply. Several governments in Asia have already begun tapping into strategic reserves to cushion potential shortages.
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan and agreed in early April, is now under severe strain and is due to expire on Wednesday. Indirect talks in Islamabad failed to produce a breakthrough, and both sides continue to trade accusations.
As the deadline approaches, mediators are scrambling to arrange further negotiations. For now, one of the world’s most critical energy arteries remains in a state of high tension, with significant implications for global trade, inflation, and economic stability.
The coming 72 hours will be decisive in determining whether this latest flare-up leads to a renewed diplomatic push or a dangerous escalation.
