A series of explosive and drone strikes in Colombia’s volatile southwestern departments has left at least 21 people dead and deepened fears over public security as the country approaches a pivotal presidential election on 31 May.
The deadliest incident took place on Saturday when a powerful bomb detonated on the Pan-American Highway near a tunnel between Cali and Popayán, in the municipality of Cajibío. The blast ripped through civilian vehicles, including a passenger bus, claiming lives and leaving dozens wounded. Colombian authorities have attributed the wave of assaults — at least 26 since Friday — to the Central General Staff (EMC), a dissident faction of the former FARC guerrilla group.
Defence officials have pointed directly to the faction commanded by Néstor Gregorio Vera Fernández, better known as Iván Mordisco, a veteran fighter who rejected the landmark 2016 peace agreement. The region, encompassing parts of Cauca and Valle del Cauca, has long been a battleground. Its dense coca plantations, illegal gold mines and strategic trafficking routes make it highly prized by armed organisations seeking to dominate illicit economies.
The timing of the offensive, coming just weeks before voters go to the polls, has heightened concerns that rebel groups are seeking to project strength and shape the political landscape. Sergio Guzmán, a Bogotá-based political risk analyst, suggested that Mordisco’s network may be aiming to showcase its operational reach while positioning itself for future dealings with whichever administration emerges after the election. “Part of what they are doing is establishing leverage towards the future,” Guzmán said.
President Gustavo Petro’s administration has championed a policy of “total peace”, offering ceasefires and talks to remaining armed factions in an effort to wind down Colombia’s long-running conflicts. Petro himself is a former guerrilla member and is barred by the constitution from seeking another term. Yet analysts argue the strategy has encountered serious setbacks. Groups have sometimes used periods of reduced pressure to rearm and tighten their hold on rural communities, where they impose taxes, recruit young people by force and restrict movement.
“The government’s peace policy has been naïve,” said Javier Garay, a political science professor at Colombia’s Externado University. “They thought that if they had a condescending attitude towards these groups they would receive a positive response.”
Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that Mordisco’s EMC is especially entrenched in Cauca and Valle del Cauca, where it battles for dominance over drug routes and mining operations. She described the recent actions as part of the group’s effort to maintain an “asymmetrical war” against the state, relying on hit-and-run tactics such as drones and roadside bombs in response to military pushes into strongholds like the Micay Canyon.
Government representatives have highlighted certain gains, including a reported drop in kidnappings and enforced community lockdowns in parts of Cauca. Opposition voices, however, contend that the overall security situation has worsened, with armed groups expanding their influence in areas where state authority remains weak.
The violence is playing directly into the election campaign. Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of Petro’s Historic Pact, has condemned the attacks and called for thorough investigations, noting that the affected region includes areas sympathetic to his political project. Conservative candidates, including Senator Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Centre and lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, are promising a firmer military approach before any renewed dialogue.
Both sides are expected to draw political advantage from the crisis. As Guzmán observed, government allies may frame the events as proof that swift negotiations are essential, while critics will argue they demonstrate the need for more decisive action against the groups.
A decade after the 2016 accord that formally ended the FARC insurgency, large parts of rural Colombia still suffer from weak governance and powerful criminal incentives. The coming election will test whether Colombians favour continuing the current dialogue-heavy path or shifting towards greater pressure on the armed actors that continue to challenge the state.
