The latest wave of coordinated militant attacks across Mali has laid bare the depth of a crisis that has been building for more than a decade — one shaped not only by insurgency but also by shifting geopolitical alliances, economic collapse and the retreat of international security forces.
In late April, armed groups launched near-simultaneous assaults on military and strategic targets in multiple locations, including near Bamako’s international airport and the major military base at Kati, as well as in the northern cities of Gao and Kidal and the central town of Sévaré. The attacks, described by analysts as among the largest and most coordinated in years, were carried out by fighters linked primarily to Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), with involvement from militants associated with Islamic State in the Sahel Province and Tuareg separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front.
For Mali’s military government, the strikes were a stark reminder that despite years of counterterrorism campaigns, large swaths of the country remain beyond effective state control.
Yet the crisis unfolding today cannot be explained solely by the resurgence of jihadist groups. It is also the result of profound political shifts inside Mali and the dramatic reconfiguration of foreign involvement in the Sahel.
From international intervention to isolation
For much of the past decade, Mali stood at the centre of an international effort to contain militant movements spreading across the Sahel.That effort began in 2013, when France launched a military intervention to push back jihadist forces that had seized large parts of northern Mali. The operation, known as Operation Serval, was widely credited with preventing the collapse of the Malian state.
It later evolved into a broader regional campaign, Operation Barkhane, involving thousands of French troops deployed across West Africa.
Alongside those forces, the United Nations established one of its largest peacekeeping operations, United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, commonly known as MINUSMA.
For years the international presence formed the backbone of Mali’s security architecture.
But relations between Mali’s military rulers and Western governments deteriorated sharply after a pair of coups in 2020 and 2021 brought a junta to power under Assimi Goïta. Accusing France and other partners of interference, the junta demanded the withdrawal of foreign forces.
By 2023, French troops and U.N. peacekeepers had largely left the country. Their departure created a security vacuum that militants have been quick to exploit.
A new partner: Russia
As Western troops exited, Mali’s leadership sought new security partners.
The junta turned increasingly toward Russia, allowing the deployment of paramilitary fighters linked to the Wagner Group, which has been active in several African conflicts. In 2024, Moscow began restructuring its security presence under a broader initiative known as Africa Corps, completing the transition from the Wagner Group by mid-2025.
Russian personnel have assisted Malian forces in counterinsurgency operations, particularly in central and northern regions.
Supporters of the government say the partnership represents a sovereign choice by Mali to diversify its security alliances after years of dependence on Western militaries.
Critics argue that the shift has deepened the country’s international isolation while failing to halt the advance of militant groups.Militants’ growing resiliencePart of the reason insurgents have endured lies in the financial networks sustaining them.
Across Mali’s vast rural areas, jihadist groups have built what analysts describe as a “war economy,” drawing income from a wide range of local and transnational activities.
Livestock theft has emerged as a major source of revenue. Armed groups seize cattle from pastoral communities and sell them across regional markets stretching into neighbouring countries.
Another critical income stream comes from Mali’s informal gold mining sector. The country is among Africa’s leading gold producers, and many artisanal mining sites lie in remote areas beyond government control.
Militant groups often impose taxes on miners or control the trade routes through which gold leaves these areas.
Kidnapping and ransom payments, once a hallmark of Sahelian militancy, continue to provide funding, though the decline in Western visitors has reduced opportunities for high-profile abductions.
In addition, insurgents impose levies on traders, farmers and transport operators in territories where they exercise influence.
These revenues allow militant networks to purchase weapons, pay fighters and maintain logistical supply chains.
Smuggling routes and seized weapons
The Sahel’s geography has also helped sustain the insurgency.For decades the region has served as a corridor for illicit trafficking linking West Africa to Europe and the Middle East. Smugglers move cocaine, fuel, arms and other contraband across sparsely governed desert routes.
Militant groups increasingly tap into these networks, either taxing smugglers or directly participating in the trade.
They also acquire large quantities of equipment through raids on military bases and militia outposts. Assaults on poorly defended installations have allowed insurgents to capture rifles, ammunition, communications gear and vehicles.
The result is a battlefield where militants often possess weapons comparable to those of the state forces they are fighting.
Governance gaps
Beyond the military dimension, analysts say the crisis reflects deeper governance failures.
In many rural areas, state institutions remain largely absent. Communities struggling with disputes over land, water and grazing rights often find little support from government authorities.
Militant groups have exploited this vacuum by presenting themselves as alternative power brokers.
They sometimes mediate local conflicts, enforce rules and provide a form of protection — albeit under coercive conditions.
Such arrangements help insurgents recruit fighters from populations that feel marginalised or neglected by the central government in Bamako.
A widening humanitarian crisis
The violence has also aggravated Mali’s humanitarian situation.
Food supply routes have come under attack, disrupting trade and raising fears of shortages in both rural areas and the capital. Previous flooding in 2024 damaged crops and displaced thousands of families, leaving many communities already vulnerable.
Aid organisations warn that continued insecurity could push large segments of the population toward acute hunger.
An uncertain future
For Mali’s leaders, the challenge ahead is formidable.
Restoring stability will require not only military pressure on militant groups but also rebuilding state institutions and addressing long-standing grievances among rural communities.
At the same time, the country must navigate a complex international landscape as rival powers compete for influence across Africa.
Whether Mali can chart a path out of its current turmoil remains uncertain. What is clear is that the conflict now unfolding across the Sahel’s vast expanses is no longer merely a local insurgency.
It has become one of the most consequential security crises on the African continent — with implications that stretch far beyond Mali’s borders.
